AFL – West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns – Winner Gold Coast Suns @ 1.78
If you look up the pre-season from hell, you’d see the West Coast Eagles in the dictionary.
Injuries, COVID and off-field drama have seen West Coast transform from a team you can bank on giving themselves a chance at a flag, to a team that some are predicting could finish bottom.
Gold Coast are clearly the smallest and most disappointing team in the last ten years. The fact that are favourites in this contest says a lot.
West coast rarely lose at home, but after one of Gold Coasts strongest pre-seasons yet, and an Eagles squad with debutants everywhere, Gold Coast should win this one. 1 unit
Bundesliga – Hertha Berlin vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim – 1×2 & Total – Hoffenheim & Under 4.5 @ 2.18
Hertha’s terrible run of form doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon.
No wins in their last ten matches in all competitions, relegation is becoming more and more of a certainty in the German capital for this once famous club.
Their next match comes at home to Hoffenheim, who have not lost in their last five, including a 1-1 draw with the mighty Bayern Munich last time out.
Although their away form this season hasn’t been much to write home about, Champions League football is a distinct possibility for the currently 6th placed Hoffenheim.
One point separates third placed Leverkusen and them, with a raft of others a couple of games off them up to Eintracht Frankfurt in 9th.
With only ten league games left, Hoffenheim will be desperate to pick up wins wherever they can and away against Hertha looms as a must win if they are to reach a UCL spot.
It’s just as big of a game for the hosts, who could jump out of the relegation zone with a win and other results going their way.
But we’ll back the visitors to do the job against the extremely out-of-form Hertha.
Also considering the goal records of both sides, we’ll put this together with the under 4.5 market as Hoffenheim have only conceded three goals in their last five.
The hosts have only scored five in their last seven, so for under 4.5 at this price, you can’t go wrong. 1 unit
English Premier League – Aston Villa vs Arsenal – Total Goals – Over 2.5 goals
Both teams on the up, and with full array of attacking options to choose from, this promises to be an exciting game.
Villa perhaps the more inconsistent of these two but at the very least we should see some goals.
$1.80 here very good value. 1.5 units
English Premier League – Wolves Vs Leeds – 1×2 Draw @ 3.50
Leeds picked up their first win of the Jesse Marsch era on Sunday, with a 94th minute goal from Joe Gelhardt nicking a 2-1 win over surely now relegated Norwich.
The scoreline itself didn’t really tell the full picture, with Leeds putting up the third highest XG (Expected Goals) across all the European Major Leagues last weekend.
Poor finishing nearly cost them as Norwich scored a late equaliser before that last gasp goal from Gelhardt.
It’s been an up and down period for Marsch since he took over (from admittedly a very small sample size) with a strong performance against Leicester in his first game which still ended pointless followed by an absolutely abject performance against VIlla where they lost 3-0.
Next they travel to Wolves, who have bounced back with two wins from two after a period of three straight defeats.
They stuffed Watford before nicking a 1-0 win over Everton the last time out, and despite their top four chances looking unlikely, they’ll no doubt be looking to keep going until this isn’t mathematically possible.
It’s worth noting that Wolves have struggled more at home than they have away this season, with six wins and six defeats from their fourteen home games.
With Leeds now employing a very different style since Marsch took over from Bielsa, with a focus on playing much narrower this could end up being a bit of a war of attrition with both sides clogging up the midfield.
Leeds should have Bamford available and Kalvin Philips is also apparently fit again and could play some part in the game.
This could end up being settled by the odd goal, but a draw also looks a decent shout in a game that probably won’t be for the purists. 1 unit
English League One – Cheltenham Town – AFC Wimbledon – 1×2 Cheltenham Town @ 2.09
Cheltenham are a solid mid-table side who have been scoring plenty of goals at home recently (9 in their last 4).
They also were part of an amazing 5-5 result away to playoff hopefuls, Wycombe.
Their recent form has also seen them hammer Doncaster at home 4-0 plus notching up wins against Morecambe and Fleetwood — all three are below them in the league.
It’s their form against the top sides that has resulted in the mid-table mediocrity. AFC Wimbledon are capitulating.
They’ve not won in 19 matches. They’ve not scored a single goal in their last 4 away games neither and conceded 10 goals in their last 5 games.
With Cheltenham putting some lowly teams to the sword and going toe-to-toe with some of the high-flyers, it’s very surprising you can get over even money here, so I will be going big on this. 2 units
CSGO ESL PRO LEAGUE – Vitality vs FURIA – 1st Map Winner: Vitality @ 1.61
Despite their poor form this tournament and during IEM Katowice, Vitality are still a relatively tough team to play against.
The roster change for this year has allowed for the addition of Dupreeh who had a decent showing at Katowice, stepping up when others were underperforming.
These past few matches may only be faults of a new team sorting out their issues.
While FURIA is ranked #14 in the world, they are simply not on the same level as Vitality.
Their recent form hasn’t been the best either, losing to top teams like G2, Navi and VP.
Expecting FURIA to pick Mirage as their 1st map, while this isn’t the best map for Vitality, it should be a great map for Zywoo to step up and show his skill as the team’s AWPer. 1 unit
AFL – St Kilda Saints Vs. Collingwood Magpies – Asian Handicap St. Kilda -7.5 @ $1.89
Collingwood come into this year after a tumultuous 12 months and with a depleted squad on paper, and more losses since, they were thoroughly outplayed by GWS in a recent practice match.
That form can be questionable at best sometimes but combine that with the face St. Kilda looked solid in a win over Essendon and this one really shouldn’t be close.
St. Kilda have all the weapons to make another run at the finals this year and it should start with a win over Collingwood tonight by a handful of goals. 1.5 units
Ligue 1 – Monaco vs. PSG – 1×2 PSG @ $1.97
Backing PSG to take 3 points back to Paris with them from this Ligue 1 encounter.
I think the 1.97 on offer is tremendous value here for the vastly superior side in PSG.
Looking to bounce back from their Champions League exit, and get their fans back on their side, after getting booed at home last weekend, I think they should win this comfortably.
With one of the most star studded teams in the world, they already have a 15 point lead at the top and I expect them to improve upon that this weekend. 3 units
Bundesliga – FC Koln vs Borussia Dortmund – 1×2 & Total
Dortmund & Under 4.5 @ 2.60
We head over to Germany this time to support the boys in black and yellow!
Koln will be fired up to get another win as they recently did against Leverkusen. Although it was a pretty even match, Koln managed to steal the win and dominate slightly more in what was a hard fought battle.
In terms of goals, fewer than three goals per game were seen in five of the last six meetings where Koln have been participants.
Regarding the goal distribution during this period, opposition teams scored a total of five while Cologne managed a tally of 5.
Going into this encounter, Cologne are winless against Borussia Dortmund in their last two league games.
Borussia Dortmund will go into this game following on from a 0-1 Bundesliga 1 win versus Mainz in their previous fixture.
In that game, Borussia Dortmund managed 59% possession and 11 attempts at goal with 4 on target.
Over the course of their last half-dozen clashes, Borussia Dortmund have helped themselves to a total of 13 goals and they have additionally got on the scoresheet on each one of those occasions.
During those fixtures, their defenders have seen seven goals go against them.
This has been a clear weakness throughout the season which has cost them important points.
Heading into this fixture, Borussia Dortmund remain undefeated by Koln.
Dating back to 02/02/2018 Koln have won 1 of them and Borussia Dortmund 4, with the number of drawn matches standing at 1.
Loads of goals were seen in those games, too – 24 overall at an average of 4 goals per match.
Considering Dortmund’s recent winning form and their chance at closing in on Bayern, I see Dortmund winning this one and the goals staying below the Under 4.5. 2 units
La Liga – Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid – 1×2 Atletico Madrid @ 2.08
Fresh from a tactical masterclass against Manchester United in midweek, Atletico Madrid make the short trip to one of the most out of form sides in La Liga in Rayo Vallecano this weekend.
Despite their passage into the Champions League Quarter Finals, their place in next season’s competition has looked far from assured at times this campaign, with Sevilla and Real Betis threatening to crash into the top four and Barcelona resurgent under Xavi.
Just as well then that Atleti appear to be hitting their stride at just the right time, with four wins in a row, including a hugely impressive 3-1 away win at Betis in that run.
On the other hand, their opponents on Saturday have picked up just one point from a possible 18 in the league, with a Copa Del Rey semi-final seemingly distracting them and threatening to derail what looked to be a promising season.
Things won’t get easier for the home side here, with Atletico knowing a win is essential as they seek a path into next season’s European elite, and at better than even money can reward backers in this one. 1 unit
NCAAB – Auburn vs. Jacksonville State – Auburn -14.5 @ 1.8
Cue the madness as we enter the brackets where it seems nothing can ever be certain..
But this weekend we look towards the matchup between Auburn and Jacksonville State to find ourselves value in what should be a lop-sided affair.
We’ll start off with the underdogs Jacksonville State, who have had a season to remember – winning the regular-season title but failing to reach the conference tournament final, yet find themselves as ‘lucky losers’ thanks to Bellarmine’s NCAA Tournament ineligibility!
In their three regular season loses, the Gamecocks trended 31% or worse shooting behind the arc and average a mere 68% from the foul line.
These factors will be exacerbated against a top-10 defensive team in the nation as the Tigers have been able to crush teams with their 3-and-D style of play, shooting the deep ball at the fifth highest rate in the nation.
Don’t buy into the chaos of March Madness..
Not for this matchup at least. Auburn to take care of business against a team that couldn’t pull through in their conference bracket. 3 units
NRL – Cronulla Sharks v Parramatta Eels – 1×2 Cronulla @ 2.21
The NRL returned with a bang last weekend with Round 1 delivering plenty of great action with some upsets thrown in for good measure.
Brisbane’s shock win over 2021 Grand Finalists South Sydney was good news for followers of this article with the Broncos not only covering the +8.5 at odds but winning in an upset 11-4 for our readers.
We’re going to stick with the theme of backing underdogs this weekend, siding with Cronulla to take down Parramatta at home.
The Sharks were another team active in the off season, luring Nicho Hynes and Dale Finucune from Melbourne and bringing in new head coach Craig Fitzgibbon.
They may have started the season with a loss last weekend against Canberra but they showed enough in that match that they will be a threat to teams in 2022.
Parramatta on the other hand got the W in Round 1 but it was far from convincing in doing so.
The Eels outlasted Gold Coast in a shootout, prevailing in the 32-28 after finding themselves behind early in the second half.
Zero tries in the second 40 plus letting in 28 points at home is hardly a promising start to a team with serious ambitions of lifting the trophy in October.
This will be Cronulla’s first game back at Shark Park for two years with renovations to the venue forcing them to take home games elsewhere.
We think the market may have taken Round 1 results into too much consideration when making the odds with Parra looking far too short at 1.74.
Back in the Shire and an encouraging Round 1 display makes Cronulla good value at 2.21. 1 unit
F1 Bahrain Grand Prix 2022 – Bahrain Grand Prix Practice – 1st Practice Winning Margin – Over 0.25 Seconds @2.20
First official “outing” of the new 2022 F1 cars and based on what we’ve seen on the pre-season testing, the only thing we can conclude is we know nothing largely due to the fact that most of the teams might have been sandbagging.
I did notice that the smallest gap between the fastest lap to the second fastest lap on all 3 days of testing in Bahrain is at least 0.45s.
Most likely this trend of sandbagging will continue until 1st Practice then will become much more competitive towards the 3rd and last Practice, hence the reason I backed the largest possible gap. 1 unit
